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This means that as the risks of flooding increase, many Townsville houses will be uninsurable or the owners will find cover unaffordable. %%EOF
trailer
Insurance is already a problematic subject in north Queensland. When I read Gail Hamilton’s post six weeks ago I agreed with nearly all of it but noticed a gap which was potentially important, i.e. �Ҭ0+� And Townsville-based LNP Senator Susan McDonald said that any discussion about a change in Australia’s emissions target that could damage North Queensland’s status as the world’s … However, the world will be so different in 35 years’ time, largely because of climate change and our responses to it (see, e.g., Whitmore and WHO), that we just can’t say much more that that. 0000532752 00000 n
H�\��j�@���\��%&��4 �������
�1�����y|JVP�����N��=�~���������M�r~��^�[?U���?~�>��a,ʼy�����b��|�2O�p��ί�(�M]���-�����C��?锆9,�j�t�7�r�N)��m�._���C��o���B}�]Ӟ�tm��[*���Z��K~��4t�]o��^����T,k,^,�W�]��-he+�؆v��ُ�ݠ��5z�ޠ��-����~f?�_��A�B��)t �Ҭ0+� I have tried to develop an approximate correction factor but there is far more to be done. 0000202083 00000 n
Last modified on Wed 31 Jul 2019 00.52 EDT. All rights reserved. 319, Issue 5863, pp. February 13, 2019 at 2:15 am. 0000002856 00000 n
On the other hand, I have omitted details of seasonal effects because they don’t seem important, and the whole of the 2070 predictions because the unknowns, so far ahead, make them far more speculative. It’s all the odder in that two reports dealing with climate change in the region had been released in 2008-09, ‘Climate Change Projections for the Townsville Region’ produced by CSIRO for Townsville City Council (pdf here) and ‘Climate change in the Townsville-Thuringowa Region,’ produced for a state government project called ‘Toward Q2: Tomorrow’s Queensland’ (pdf here). Recent decades have shown a clear warming trend. ‘Climate change ‘unprecedented’ by 2050: study’ The Conversation, 2013. https://theconversation.com/climate-change-unprecedented-by-2050-study-19000, WHO fact sheet, Climate Change and Health, June 2016 http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs266/en/. It seems, then, that climate change tightens the known constraints on our water supply in the short term (2030) but does not change the picture radically. ‘Stationarity Is Dead: Whither Water Management?’ Science 01 Feb 2008: Vol. �r抙+� 0000004851 00000 n
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The modelling, based on current global emissions trajectories, says flooding in Townsville is already about 20% more to likely to occur than previously thought. Houses in flood-hit Townsville and other parts of north Queensland are “on track to become uninsurable”, according to analysis that shows the risk to homes from flooding will more than double under climate change. If that holds true for this study, and it does seem to be broadly supported by recent climate trends, we may well experience rainfall decreases of 12% by 2030 and 21% by 2050. 0000250884 00000 n
v q%���RAAdy�z��P�L�����T�]\���
͂0���ni��-F�B���,��6�� �6 b�FIA#���������*��s�-`/�C�̫M=���7�_,����P���A��=�iמ��.G�U��n��\(�����A������܆-7�W�׳Y�`t�G�`� On others it is an optional extra. Home and business owners have reported being caught out by the scale of this month’s flooding in Townsville. 0000457061 00000 n
Once again, views expressed are the author’s, not those of NQCC. the impact of climate change on our water security: the ‘Regional Water Supply Security Assessment’ from the Department of Water and Energy Supply (2014) (pdf here), upon which she relied for her ‘current situation’ section, didn’t consider climate change effects at all. �Ҭ0+� It pointed to a 2018 report from the World Health Organisation, which predicted that between 2030 and 2050, global warming would cause an additional 250,000 deaths per year from heat stress, malnutrition, malaria and diarrhoea. It is also worth noting that the majority of climate change projections, everywhere, have tended to be too conservative, i.e. ��o����o����o����o����o����o����l0����9m���9m���9m���9m���9m���9g똭��p:g똭��0G�6b����?���G�#����?���G�#����?����5��Mu� “What’s the future for our children?” said Coleman. Here is its overview of climate projections for 2030 and 2050: I have included the evaporation figures here because Ross Dam is so broad and shallow that evaporative losses are significant. “Generally insurance companies often draw a line in the sand at the frequency of a one-in-100 year flood event. In particular, historical rainfall across the catchments of our three dams (each different from the regional averages quoted above, and each highly variable) needs to be examined in enough detail to derive robust trends. Townsville has a tropical savannah climate and very unpredictable rain patterns from year to year. Most policies cover flooding as standard but it is not a requirement.
Available for everyone, funded by readers. 0000291927 00000 n
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But Misha Coleman, one of the report’s authors, stressed that deaths were already occurring. This, the fourth post in our water security series, began as a response to the first of them, the Townsville Water Discussion Paper, and addresses an issue which none of the first three looked at. Many say they did not have specific flood cover, and that the city planning codes rated properties outside the “one in 100 years” flood zone as effectively flood-free. 0000557248 00000 n
For decades climate scientists and activists have been warning about climate change. Projected average temperature, rainfall and evaporation for 2030, 2050 and 2070 under low, medium and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios are compared with historical climate records. © 2020 Guardian News & Media Limited or its affiliated companies. 0000292182 00000 n
Our climate is already highly variable but climate change … ‘Australian climate variability and change – Trend maps’ http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=trend-maps (2016), Department of Energy and Water Supply, ‘Regional Water Supply Security Assessment: Townsville’, October 2014 https://www.dews.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/224596/townsville-rwssa.pdf, Hamilton, G. ‘Townsville Water Discussion Paper’ http://aux.nqcc.org.au/2016/water-security-series-part1/, Hennessy, K. et al. Last modified on Tue 19 Feb 2019 20.10 EST. 0000006611 00000 n
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A 2017 report in the journal Nature predicted that by 2100, 75% of people around the world would be exposed to heatwaves extreme enough to kill. The report found that as well as deaths caused directly by severe weather events such as hurricanes, flooding and fires, the “more deep and insidious impact” came from the secondary impacts of climate change. The report, From Townsville to Tuvalu, produced by Monash University in Melbourne, pulled together scientific research from roughly 120 peer-reviewed journal articles to paint a picture of the health-related impacts of the climate emergency in Australia and the Pacific region. H�\��j�@��}��l/���δ �4i!��i��&�U6�"o�=��B��uf�c�ڬ7�M��f�G��B��?�ƛ�?t!�����i�6�z��T���F܄}�U�����i�s�l����������Xm�M�=×?�0��Y,L����S=��ֲl�o>�U>���-�L\�}����\�K�%[�#;���dߒo�w�;�Nl�ߢ�e�>�},��Gr 0000009068 00000 n
It is worth noting that the report’s projections begin from a baseline period 1971-2000 [note to Table 2]. ��D��Ţ1{[�����3wqlhfk�)T�Y��)%)���E>s���ޖ/�eY��#�ࡐ��R�r��J�\L,��s�iժ)����fߙ� ~�2 �"
jf����eϕ�Zqs�;�M�Z�D��B�7��H�v/�9�? “Severe weather events are causing flooding, particularly in informal settlements in the Pacific, that leads to diseases including diarrhoea, that can be very serious and fatal in people, particularly children,” said John Thwaites, chair of the Sustainable Development Institute at Monash University. All rights reserved. Parts 2 and 3 are here and here. 2 The effect on small island nations is well known. Although close to the tropics, Townsville gets less rain than other areas in the region. Guardian Australia reported last week that people in Townsville had in many cases opted for the cheaper option, in the mistaken belief their properties were not at risk. 0000005386 00000 n
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“During the Black Saturday fires [in Victoria in 2009] for example, we know that people were directly killed by the fires, but there were nearly 400 additional deaths in those hot days from heat stress and heatstroke,” said Coleman. 0000002261 00000 n
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However, the climate is changing across Queensland. I am well aware that this terminology is traditional but recurrence intervals are calculated on the basis of historical data, so their underlying assumption is that future conditions will be similar to past conditions. %PDF-1.6
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For instance, the dam might reach the 10% trigger point once in every six years with 60,000 Ml/yr consumption rather than the once in every nine years predicted under the DEWS report’s “Frequency of water restrictions for Townsville” (130 ML/day capacity Haughton pipeline scenario). “These events are more common, more frequent and not going to become less so in a short amount of time.”, Available for everyone, funded by readers. The Townsville area has a tropical climate but, due to its geographical location, rainfall is not as high as elsewhere in the tropics.. ‘Climate Change Projections for the Townsville Region’ a report prepared for Townsville City Council, July 2008. http://www.creektocoral.org.au/draftwqip/climatechange/seao2/Appendix%201%20-%20CSIRO%20report.pdf, Milly, P.C.D. All the likely effects of climate change are negative, as far as dam levels and water security are concerned, but just how significant are they? 0000532493 00000 n
Rainfall trends 1940-2015 -- Temperature trends 1940-2015. Photograph: Andrew Rankin/AAP Climate change is expected to pose particularly stark issues for … Recent events – such as the unprecedented monsoon events in Townsville in February 2019 and the catastrophic bushfires in southern Australian have made it very clear that climate change …
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