First, as we show in Exhibit 24, a rising tax burden is now pushing down disposable income by 60 basis points. Source: Bloomberg. Without question, this shift in strategy by European banks is leading to large and attractive opportunities for non-bank lenders, particularly those with restructuring and operational expertise. In both instances the cost to carry is quite low. Bet on Consumers, Not Producers; But We See a Different Consumer This Cycle. One can see an example of this in Exhibit 74, which shows a major slowdown in low value added exports at the same time that high value exports are increasing quite strongly. Despite a potentially negative backdrop, the GBPUSD option market is pricing in very little fear around such a potentially disruptive event to capital markets. Indeed, similar to what we originally outlined in our May 2015 piece Emerging Market Equities: The Case for Selectivity Remains, we remain concerned that EM ROEs are being bogged down by bloated balance sheets (Rule 1), that FX is likely to remain a headwind even when EM markets finally begin to improve in local terms (Rule 3), and that it will be difficult for EM to outperform until commodity prices bottom (Rule 4), which we think is unlikely until later this year. If we are right, then the near historic wide spread between BB-rated and CCC-rated high yield bonds likely gets resolved by higher quality bonds trading down, not lower quality bonds trading up. Finanzinvestor KKR offenbar vor Milliardendeal. Finally, the volatility market is not pricing this potential correlation spike correctly. Risk #3: Certain Parts of the U.S. Capital Markets Appear to Be Extended. What’s off in our mind is the timing. Data as at December 10, 2015. Specifically, consumer confidence reports in both the Eurozone and EU moved upward again in December, with the Eurozone report reaching its 82nd percentile value since 1985.3. Source: Bloomberg, KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation analysis. Source: KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation analysis. Data as at October 7, 2015. Overall, we continue to see less upside for long-term rates than for short-term rates. Why the change to Levered Loans from Opportunistic Credit? No person should rely upon the past performance or reputation of KKR or its investment products when considering any security offered by the Drawbridge Fund or Drawbridge. Also, with the U.S. deficit now shrinking, annual issuance of U.S. government bonds is creating more scarcity value than in past years, which should also help to keep a lid on yields, in our view. The recipient should not distribute this Communication to any person (other than its legal, investment or tax advisors) without the prior consent of Drawbridge. We noted this phenomenon last year when we reduced our exposure to the sector, and recent announcements of companies pricing their IPOs below the final round of private financing legitimize our thinking, we believe. Hong Kong, Partner & Head of Client and Partner Group, Co-Chair, Inclusion and Diversity Council, Managing Director, Head of Public Equity Investing, Managing Director, Client and Partner Group, FS KKR Capital Corp.
In fact, personal consumption growth in the United States during this recovery has expanded at just 3.7% on a nominal basis and 2.0% on a real basis versus 7.1% and 3.7%, respectively, on average since 1950. We certainly do not have all the answers to all these risks, but we do think running with some extra protection at the aggregate level in 2016 makes sense. Für die aufgeführten Inhalte kann keine Gewährleistung für die Vollständigkeit, Richtigkeit und Genauigkeit übernommen werden. Of course, a big question in the real asset space at this point in the cycle is whether it is time to step into the traditional exploration and production segment of the energy market, including both equity and debt. Data as at September 30, 2015. For macro and asset allocation wonks like us, we view the current environment as one where the efficient frontier curve has now flattened relative to earlier in this cycle because volatility has increased in recent months, but the potential return profile for many asset classes has not increased commensurately (Exhibit 1). Transaction comparables from IHS. In the U.S., strategic buyers continue to boost overall valuations, though we like some of the developing trends we are seeing in parts of the U.S. consumer economy, including healthcare spending, wellness, and experiential shopping. To be sure, we believe either one could happen in 2016, but neither outcome is currently part of our base case outlook. Le fonds dispose alors de liquidités dépassant les 50 milliards de dollars avec un chiffre d'affaires équivalent alors à IBM. Data as at January 8, 2016. Emerging Markets includes Argentina, Brazil, China, Czech Republic, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey.
Fourth, many emerging market economies are underperforming relative to both history and expectations. Renseignez vos informations ci-dessous pour recevoir votre guide gratuitement. 12. One can see the divergence of the various constituents’ predictions in Exhibit 57. On the technical side, we see the incredibly low global rates environment as a further constraint on U.S. rates. Further, KKR is under no obligation to provide the Drawbridge Fund with investment opportunities and in many cases will be prohibited from doing so by KKR’s internal policies and procedures. Specifically, we continue to think that the Fed’s forecast is too hawkish, while other market participants appear to be too dovish. Source: World Bank, Haver Analytics, KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation analysis. As a further sanity check for our conservative posture on multiples, we looked at U.S. equities as a percentage of GDP at the point in the cycle when the Federal Reserve is raising rates. To review, when China joined the WTO in 2001, its rapid ascent in low-end manufacturing dramatically reduced profits and jobs linked to manufacturing activities in major markets like the United States. Data as at December 31, 2014.
Source: Bloomberg, UBS, RBS, Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse. Source: IMF, Haver Analytics, KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation analysis. Es sei das erste Unternehmen, das den Kontaktlinsenkauf online angeboten habe, so die Website. Cumulative total return on an annual basis. For the first time in years, cash could offer a competitive return relative to other asset classes if the Fed hikes three times as we currently expect. © 1999-2020 finanzen.net GmbH, DAX grenzt Verluste ein -- Dow höher -- Anleger feiern starke Tesla-Zahlen -- Coca-Cola über Erwartungen -- American Airlines, adidas, Varta, Bayer, Continental, Hypoport, AstraZeneca im Fokus, Dow-Aktie wechselt das Vorzeichen: Niedrige Preise und Stellenabbau belasten Dow, Coca-Cola schneidet besser ab als erwartet - Coca-Cola-Aktie gefragt, JinkoSolar Holdings Co Ltd Sponsored Amercian Deposit Receipt Repr 2 Shs. KKR habe in einem Bieterwettbewerb andere Beteiligungsgesellschaften ausgestochen. In particular, with liquid credit markets souring of late, the opportunity for private lenders to opportunistically provide mezzanine-like capital in complex corporate take-overs at attractive rates of return has definitely gained momentum in recent months, a trend we expect to accelerate in 2016. yesterday Photos. Source: IMFWEO, Haver Analytics. Data as at December 31, 2015.