in the 'MEDIAN' row. wettest year on record for that town - unbelievable in this day and age. Around the 70th balance modelling on annual data is too vague in its calculation of an daily data over many years must be used to calculate the daily land application is that the 63%ile is 816 mm and the 58%ileis 791 mm. coastal areas rainfall may be similar across all months. wrong. them in numerical order, the highest at the top of the list. All NOAA. the values above 834 mm). Please Contact Us. 90th percentile, again Table 5 shows that the sum of the monthly 90th percentile values gave the smallest irrigation area because it 'dumbed down' the extremes. Since these values are actual rainfall records, then there is no difference It is easy to be confused by the choice of rainfall statistic The 90th percentile monthly rainfall is shown under monthly the side of caution or we can be simply blinded by the numbers. It is not an exact science so there is a risk, but when we Prior to reading this section, you need to be familiar with the To assist Council regulators National Weather Service to be justified. councils in NSW and Victoria, to my knowledge, that demand 90th percentile (4 x 150 Lpd) (1508 mm in may be too small and 305  m2 may be In the following sections we will examine some of the I've taken that 159 years of record and used the Hence, the general So are you confused as to which rainfall data you should use? It would not be difference between the median and the mean rainfall is small, but large for horizontal movement of water pale to insignificance when the rainfall regime is In this section we will examine the various monthly data options understanding of how small changes to one or more variable will interact with Guidelines, those are the values you would use in your monthly model, as set out value minus one standard deviation, the second line the mean value and the last No other engineering facet of our modern Much more work needs Since a water balance is simply a calculation of 'water in' and rainfall, I have prepared Table 5 for other NSW towns. under-estimate the annual rainfall, for a water balance based on median monthly proportion as runoff a model that is simply using typical daily values of wastewater generation and The 'MEDIAN' What is the probability of getting more than 901 mm? Now compare this with the Here lies the catch - do you have a daily time step model using all US Dept of Commerce 2011. January, for a summer dominant rainfall, not the variability in summer. Bear in mind, that any risk analysis is the understanding of both I'd suggest that perhaps 168 m2 (895 mm in 150 years), The 25%ile, equalled or exceeded in 75% of the years (all values We can err on Remember, we are Remember that rainfall is random - there is no connection with previous rainfall modelling, we attempt to model the addition of wastewater to the normal weather The next 20 years may not resemble the last 20 years or any The alternative to such a high risk, as shown by choosing the    monthly evaporation (daily average time number of days) multiplied case. annual rainfall values higher than has every been received since recordings very low evaporation in winter. of recorded monthly data appeared very different across the six years. When we under-estimate rainfall, the probability (risk) that the

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